How Waiver's picks have done

Waiver grades itself every week, in public, against the average of expert rankings and against going by recent points. Weeks it loses stay on the page.

This season

Each week's projections, graded on that week's games. A pair of players counts when their scores were at least two points apart, and a missed game counts as zero.

Biggest calls against the experts

Across the season so far, the player finished nearer Waiver's rank on 87 of 140 of these calls, and nearer the experts' on 52. Week 7's:

Tested record

Before the site launched, the model was replayed over every week of the 2024 and 2025 seasons: retrained each week on only what was known at the time, then asked to order each position by points per game over the next 4 games.

Waiver

85.8%

Expert consensus

82.8%

Last four games

80.3%

Accuracy is the share of pairs of players at the same position that were put in the right order. Past accuracy is no guarantee of future results.