How Waiver's picks have done
Waiver grades itself every week, in public, against the average of expert rankings and against going by recent points. Weeks it loses stay on the page.
This season
The first graded week arrives once week 2 has been played. Every week after that is added automatically, including the weeks the experts do better.
Biggest calls against the experts
Each week's biggest disagreements with the experts are graded here once the games are played: did the player finish nearer Waiver's rank or the experts'?
Tested record
Before the site launched, the model was replayed over every week of the 2024 and 2025 seasons: retrained each week on only what was known at the time, then asked to order each position by points per game over the next 4 games.
- Waiver
- 85.8%
- Expert consensus
- 82.8%
- Last four games
- 80.3%
| Season | Waiver | Experts | Last four games |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 86.2% | 82.2% | 80.0% |
| 2024 | 85.4% | 83.5% | 80.6% |
| Position | Waiver | Experts | Last four games |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quarterbacks | 81.0% | 79.8% | 73.1% |
| Running backs | 88.9% | 85.7% | 84.7% |
| Wide receivers | 86.6% | 82.6% | 81.8% |
| Tight ends | 86.7% | 83.2% | 81.5% |
Accuracy is the share of pairs of players at the same position that were put in the right order. Past accuracy is no guarantee of future results.