Week 9: how the picks actually did
In week 9, Waiver ordered players correctly 87.7% of the time, ahead of expert consensus on 82.7%.
Against the experts
Every pair of players at the same position whose scores finished at least two points apart, and how often each source put them in the right order. A player whose team played and who did not counts as the zero he scored.
| Source | Right order |
|---|---|
| Waiver | 87.7% |
| Expert consensus | 82.7% |
| Going by recent points | 79.0% |
Against Sleeper's projections
Over the 344 players both Waiver and Sleeper projected, scored the same way on the same games. Sleeper's numbers were captured before the games.
| Source | Right order |
|---|---|
| Waiver | 80.4% |
| Sleeper | 78.6% |
13324 pairs counted.
The calls against consensus
The players Waiver ranked furthest from the experts before the week. It was nearer the finish on 16 of 23.
| Player | Waiver | Experts | Finished | Nearer |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baker Mayfield | QB17 | QB24 | QB23 · 7.7 | Experts |
| Patrick Mahomes | QB4 | QB10 | QB10 · 16.5 | Experts |
| Kirk Cousins | QB18 | QB23 | QB17 · 12.6 | Waiver |
| Malik Willis | QB24 | QB16 | QB28 · 3.8 | Waiver |
| Kyler Murray | QB28 | QB20 | QB42 · 0.0 | Waiver |
| Sam Darnold | QB29 | QB22 | QB33 · 0.0 | Waiver |
| Pierre Strong | RB45 | RB109 | RB48 · 5.3 | Waiver |
| Emanuel Wilson | RB25 | RB61 | RB70 · 0.0 | Experts |
| Justice Hill | RB40 | RB65 | RB7 · 18.2 | Waiver |
| Jeremiyah Love | RB107 | RB33 | RB120 · 0.0 | Waiver |
| RJ Harvey | RB101 | RB47 | RB109 · 0.0 | Waiver |
| Saquon Barkley | RB51 | RB22 | RB29 · 8.2 | Experts |
| Xavier Hutchinson | WR60 | WR104 | WR33 · 11.9 | Waiver |
| Jahan Dotson | WR59 | WR98 | WR78 · 3.6 | Waiver |
| Devaughn Vele | WR42 | WR58 | WR75 · 3.7 | Experts |
| Brian Thomas Jr. | WR105 | WR59 | WR146 · 0.0 | Waiver |
| Ladd McConkey | WR65 | WR29 | WR144 · 0.0 | Waiver |
| Marvin Harrison Jr. | WR84 | WR56 | WR73 · 4.0 | Waiver |
| Tyler Higbee | TE14 | TE29 | TE44 · 2.3 | Experts |
| Cade Otton | TE22 | TE35 | TE25 · 6.5 | Waiver |
| Greg Dulcich | TE16 | TE23 | TE41 · 3.4 | Experts |
| Terrance Ferguson | TE82 | TE18 | TE102 · 0.0 | Waiver |
| Tucker Kraft | TE12 | TE7 | TE48 · 1.9 | Waiver |
Every number here is measured on games already played, against the same players and the same scoring. Weeks the site loses are reported too: a record that only shows wins is not a record. The scorecard carries the running totals, and every report is kept.