Week 5: how the picks actually did
In week 5, Waiver ordered players correctly 84.2% of the time, ahead of expert consensus on 74.5%.
Against the experts
Every pair of players at the same position whose scores finished at least two points apart, and how often each source put them in the right order. A player whose team played and who did not counts as the zero he scored.
| Source | Right order |
|---|---|
| Waiver | 84.2% |
| Expert consensus | 74.5% |
| Going by recent points | 72.8% |
Against Sleeper's projections
Over the 391 players both Waiver and Sleeper projected, scored the same way on the same games. Sleeper's numbers were captured before the games.
| Source | Right order |
|---|---|
| Waiver | 76.3% |
| Sleeper | 79.3% |
12514 pairs counted.
The calls against consensus
The players Waiver ranked furthest from the experts before the week. It was nearer the finish on 16 of 24.
| Player | Waiver | Experts | Finished | Nearer |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | QB15 | QB29 | QB11 · 22.0 | Waiver |
| C.J. Stroud | QB10 | QB18 | QB13 · 20.9 | Waiver |
| Justin Herbert | QB12 | QB19 | QB24 · 10.2 | Experts |
| Lamar Jackson | QB18 | QB3 | QB38 · 0.0 | Waiver |
| Malik Willis | QB31 | QB21 | QB14 · 18.9 | Experts |
| Kyler Murray | QB30 | QB22 | QB15 · 18.3 | Experts |
| Devin Singletary | RB47 | RB78 | RB77 · 0.0 | Experts |
| Emanuel Wilson | RB26 | RB49 | RB20 · 13.2 | Waiver |
| Brian Robinson | RB34 | RB54 | RB62 · 1.6 | Experts |
| Jadarian Price | RB81 | RB39 | RB109 · 0.0 | Waiver |
| Jonah Coleman | RB88 | RB48 | RB108 · 0.0 | Waiver |
| Jordan Mason | RB66 | RB34 | RB82 · 0.0 | Waiver |
| Keon Coleman | WR48 | WR83 | WR45 · 7.7 | Waiver |
| Malik Washington | WR38 | WR62 | WR25 · 12.1 | Waiver |
| Rashod Bateman | WR51 | WR73 | WR31 · 11.2 | Waiver |
| A.J. Brown | WR115 | WR26 | WR113 · 0.0 | Waiver |
| Michael Pittman | WR139 | WR60 | WR116 · 0.0 | Waiver |
| DJ Moore | WR61 | WR21 | WR108 · 0.0 | Waiver |
| Cade Otton | TE14 | TE30 | TE25 · 5.5 | Experts |
| Michael Mayer | TE15 | TE29 | TE56 · 1.2 | Experts |
| Brenton Strange | TE10 | TE16 | TE8 · 13.8 | Waiver |
| Terrance Ferguson | TE84 | TE24 | TE93 · 0.0 | Waiver |
| Kyle Pitts | TE31 | TE20 | TE7 · 15.2 | Experts |
| Dalton Kincaid | TE11 | TE3 | TE37 · 3.7 | Waiver |
Every number here is measured on games already played, against the same players and the same scoring. Weeks the site loses are reported too: a record that only shows wins is not a record. The scorecard carries the running totals, and every report is kept.