Waiver Season 2026 · week 6 · updated Oct 13

Week 5: how the picks actually did

Week 5 · 13 October 2026

In week 5, Waiver ordered players correctly 84.2% of the time, ahead of expert consensus on 74.5%.

Against the experts

Every pair of players at the same position whose scores finished at least two points apart, and how often each source put them in the right order. A player whose team played and who did not counts as the zero he scored.

SourceRight order
Waiver84.2%
Expert consensus74.5%
Going by recent points72.8%

Against Sleeper's projections

Over the 391 players both Waiver and Sleeper projected, scored the same way on the same games. Sleeper's numbers were captured before the games.

SourceRight order
Waiver76.3%
Sleeper79.3%

12514 pairs counted.

The calls against consensus

The players Waiver ranked furthest from the experts before the week. It was nearer the finish on 16 of 24.

PlayerWaiverExpertsFinishedNearer
Aaron RodgersQB15QB29QB11 · 22.0Waiver
C.J. StroudQB10QB18QB13 · 20.9Waiver
Justin HerbertQB12QB19QB24 · 10.2Experts
Lamar JacksonQB18QB3QB38 · 0.0Waiver
Malik WillisQB31QB21QB14 · 18.9Experts
Kyler MurrayQB30QB22QB15 · 18.3Experts
Devin SingletaryRB47RB78RB77 · 0.0Experts
Emanuel WilsonRB26RB49RB20 · 13.2Waiver
Brian RobinsonRB34RB54RB62 · 1.6Experts
Jadarian PriceRB81RB39RB109 · 0.0Waiver
Jonah ColemanRB88RB48RB108 · 0.0Waiver
Jordan MasonRB66RB34RB82 · 0.0Waiver
Keon ColemanWR48WR83WR45 · 7.7Waiver
Malik WashingtonWR38WR62WR25 · 12.1Waiver
Rashod BatemanWR51WR73WR31 · 11.2Waiver
A.J. BrownWR115WR26WR113 · 0.0Waiver
Michael PittmanWR139WR60WR116 · 0.0Waiver
DJ MooreWR61WR21WR108 · 0.0Waiver
Cade OttonTE14TE30TE25 · 5.5Experts
Michael MayerTE15TE29TE56 · 1.2Experts
Brenton StrangeTE10TE16TE8 · 13.8Waiver
Terrance FergusonTE84TE24TE93 · 0.0Waiver
Kyle PittsTE31TE20TE7 · 15.2Experts
Dalton KincaidTE11TE3TE37 · 3.7Waiver

Every number here is measured on games already played, against the same players and the same scoring. Weeks the site loses are reported too: a record that only shows wins is not a record. The scorecard carries the running totals, and every report is kept.