Week 4: how the picks actually did
In week 4, Waiver ordered players correctly 86.7% of the time, ahead of expert consensus on 76.4%.
Against the experts
Every pair of players at the same position whose scores finished at least two points apart, and how often each source put them in the right order. A player whose team played and who did not counts as the zero he scored.
| Source | Right order |
|---|---|
| Waiver | 86.7% |
| Expert consensus | 76.4% |
| Going by recent points | 77.0% |
Against Sleeper's projections
Over the 414 players both Waiver and Sleeper projected, scored the same way on the same games. Sleeper's numbers were captured before the games.
| Source | Right order |
|---|---|
| Waiver | 79.3% |
| Sleeper | 78.2% |
14162 pairs counted.
The calls against consensus
The players Waiver ranked furthest from the experts before the week. It was nearer the finish on 15 of 24.
| Player | Waiver | Experts | Finished | Nearer |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacoby Brissett | QB12 | QB26 | QB25 · 10.4 | Experts |
| Aaron Rodgers | QB19 | QB28 | QB5 · 22.0 | Waiver |
| Justin Herbert | QB10 | QB16 | QB27 · 9.6 | Experts |
| Malik Willis | QB29 | QB18 | QB32 · 2.5 | Waiver |
| Trevor Lawrence | QB15 | QB5 | QB19 · 13.1 | Waiver |
| Drake Maye | QB20 | QB12 | QB1 · 26.2 | Experts |
| Devin Singletary | RB47 | RB73 | RB79 · 0.0 | Experts |
| George Holani | RB48 | RB67 | RB54 · 3.0 | Waiver |
| Tyler Allgeier | RB34 | RB50 | RB25 · 12.9 | Waiver |
| Jadarian Price | RB87 | RB27 | RB111 · 0.0 | Waiver |
| Jonah Coleman | RB92 | RB38 | RB107 · 0.0 | Waiver |
| Jonathon Brooks | RB94 | RB48 | RB93 · 0.0 | Waiver |
| Mack Hollins | WR50 | WR96 | WR52 · 8.3 | Waiver |
| Kalif Raymond | WR40 | WR69 | WR87 · 2.6 | Experts |
| Michael Wilson | WR13 | WR36 | WR16 · 16.5 | Waiver |
| A.J. Brown | WR112 | WR28 | WR132 · 0.0 | Waiver |
| Alec Pierce | WR136 | WR58 | WR139 · 0.0 | Waiver |
| DJ Moore | WR47 | WR21 | WR86 · 2.7 | Waiver |
| Cade Otton | TE12 | TE29 | TE24 · 7.7 | Experts |
| Michael Mayer | TE20 | TE36 | TE7 · 16.2 | Waiver |
| Kenyon Sadiq | TE11 | TE20 | TE96 · 0.0 | Experts |
| Terrance Ferguson | TE84 | TE19 | TE99 · 0.0 | Waiver |
| Kyle Pitts | TE39 | TE14 | TE25 · 7.7 | Experts |
| Colston Loveland | TE22 | TE7 | TE12 · 11.7 | Experts |
Every number here is measured on games already played, against the same players and the same scoring. Weeks the site loses are reported too: a record that only shows wins is not a record. The scorecard carries the running totals, and every report is kept.