Week 3: how the picks actually did
In week 3, Waiver ordered players correctly 81.7% of the time, ahead of expert consensus on 72.9%.
Against the experts
Every pair of players at the same position whose scores finished at least two points apart, and how often each source put them in the right order. A player whose team played and who did not counts as the zero he scored.
| Source | Right order |
|---|---|
| Waiver | 81.7% |
| Expert consensus | 72.9% |
| Going by recent points | 73.8% |
Against Sleeper's projections
Over the 407 players both Waiver and Sleeper projected, scored the same way on the same games. Sleeper's numbers were captured before the games.
| Source | Right order |
|---|---|
| Waiver | 73.5% |
| Sleeper | 73.7% |
14083 pairs counted.
The calls against consensus
The players Waiver ranked furthest from the experts before the week. It was nearer the finish on 20 of 24.
| Player | Waiver | Experts | Finished | Nearer |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Shough | QB4 | QB14 | QB6 · 23.8 | Waiver |
| Matthew Stafford | QB8 | QB15 | QB10 · 20.9 | Waiver |
| Jacoby Brissett | QB21 | QB28 | QB4 · 25.6 | Waiver |
| Kyler Murray | QB30 | QB19 | QB25 · 10.4 | Waiver |
| Drake Maye | QB12 | QB5 | QB30 · 3.8 | Waiver |
| Trevor Lawrence | QB11 | QB4 | QB14 · 19.8 | Waiver |
| Devin Singletary | RB48 | RB73 | RB75 · 0.0 | Experts |
| Justice Hill | RB47 | RB71 | RB50 · 3.3 | Waiver |
| Woody Marks | RB30 | RB47 | RB29 · 9.1 | Waiver |
| Jonathon Brooks | RB91 | RB39 | RB89 · 0.0 | Waiver |
| Jonah Coleman | RB88 | RB42 | RB107 · 0.0 | Waiver |
| Jordan Mason | RB78 | RB45 | RB78 · 0.0 | Waiver |
| Keon Coleman | WR60 | WR90 | WR74 · 4.7 | Waiver |
| Kalif Raymond | WR56 | WR85 | WR9 · 21.0 | Waiver |
| Germie Bernard | WR58 | WR84 | WR97 · 2.4 | Experts |
| Alec Pierce | WR141 | WR56 | WR136 · 0.0 | Waiver |
| A.J. Brown | WR111 | WR27 | WR121 · 0.0 | Waiver |
| DJ Moore | WR55 | WR23 | WR31 · 12.7 | Experts |
| Michael Mayer | TE15 | TE35 | TE12 · 12.2 | Waiver |
| Cade Otton | TE12 | TE29 | TE21 · 8.6 | Experts |
| Mike Gesicki | TE19 | TE32 | TE11 · 12.7 | Waiver |
| Oronde Gadsden II | TE42 | TE22 | TE77 · 0.0 | Waiver |
| Kyle Pitts | TE33 | TE13 | TE50 · 1.5 | Waiver |
| Colston Loveland | TE17 | TE5 | TE26 · 7.1 | Waiver |
Every number here is measured on games already played, against the same players and the same scoring. Weeks the site loses are reported too: a record that only shows wins is not a record. The scorecard carries the running totals, and every report is kept.